I write 3 days before the Kentucky Derby (and 2 days before the Oaks, for all you Louisville-area readers). Earlier this week, my middle child was at Churchill Downs, where she got to spend some quality time with a Derby horse. Of course, that horse (along with every other one that will run for the roses) gets odds assigned by people whose job it is to guess how fast a particular horse can gallop 1.25 miles.

That’s a job I would not want, nor would I be any good at doing. But it got me thinking: what areas of life do I know about where I could assign odds? So, in the tradition of the Derby, here are odds on things I DO have a clue about. (Note: odds are for entertainment purposes only).

Odds that…

• I will take a nap tomorrow, on my day off? 2 to 1
• I will eat too many Qdoba chips now that my son works there? 1 to 2
• I will make Qdoba my go-to place for Tex-Mex, now that my son works there? 75 to 1 (500 to 1 on Moe’s Monday)
• When my wife turns 50 next April I will do something more sinister than write a blog about her? 1 to 3
• I will jump out of a plane again? 300 to 1 (because, really, isn’t once enough?)
• I will use the word shalom in my next sermon series on Genesis? 1 to 2
• Campfire Conversations will be one of my coolest-ever summertime church ideas? 4 to 1
• I will finish my doctorate? 2.5 to 1
• I will finish my doctorate next year? 12 to 1
• The horse my daughter is posing with will actually win the Derby? 50 to 1 (The horse’s name, by the way, is Fast and Accurate. Sounds like the oddsmakers disagree.)
• I will begin working on my Spanish again, even if just the Duolingo app? 4 to 1
• I will get our kitchen wall fixed this year? 6 to 1 (really needs to be 1 to 1)
• A cat will make me cry? 10 to 1 (Not because I don’t like cats, though I’m certainly not their biggest fans. The simple fact is that I’m allergic to cats. It’s not good. Trust me.)
• I will cry at my daughter’s graduation next month? 15 to 1 (Not because I’m not one of her fans. Really. The simple fact is that I’m just not allergic to her.)

Ok. Enough on placing odds on the less-than-essential stuff. Let’s talk about things that really matter. What are the odds that, five years from now…

• Sunday morning will still be the most segregated hour of the week? 20 to 1 (wish I could put these odds much lower than that)
• Divorce will be less common in the Church, as we get serious about marriage, faithfulness, and commitment? 4 to 1 (Isn’t it time we got real about love and grace in our homes?)
• The American Church will be known for love more than for anger or partisan politics? 3 to 1 (Isn’t it time we got real about love and grace in our world?)
• Christians will need grace in every aspect of their lives? 1 to 1 (I mean, what else would you bet your life on?)